Testing & evidenceBest Trading Systems: How to Compare Them and Pick One That FitsHow to compare trading systems on logic, worst-case behavior, schedule and account size instead of on headline profit.Testing & evidenceHow to read a trading strategy fact sheet without being fooledRead any trading strategy fact sheet in five minutes with five questions: live or backtest, sample size, gross or net, account and contracts, worst drawdown.
Testing & evidenceMonte Carlo simulation for trading systems, in plain EnglishMonte Carlo simulation reshuffles the order of your trades thousands of times to reveal a range of drawdowns and returns, not one single lucky equity curve.
Testing & evidenceSignal vs system vs strategy: what you are actually buyingA trading signal is one instruction, a strategy is the idea behind it, and a system is the complete rule set. Knowing which one you buy changes everything.Testing & evidencePaper trading vs live: the gap nobody warns you aboutPaper trading vs live: why simulated results overstate real performance, where the gap really comes from (fills, slippage, emotion) and how to bridge it.Testing & evidenceHow to read an equity curve (and spot one that is faked)How to read an equity curve: what the slope, the drawdowns and the flat spots really tell you, and why a believable curve looks lumpier than a fake one.Testing & evidenceWalk-Forward Testing Explained: The Backtest You Can Trust MoreWalk-forward testing optimizes on one slice of history and validates on the next, unseen slice, which is why it catches curve-fitting a single backtest hides.Testing & evidenceWhy past performance is genuinely hypothetical (in CFTC terms)The hypothetical performance disclaimer is not legal throat-clearing. In CFTC terms, why simulated results are genuinely hypothetical, clause by clause.Testing & evidenceWhy automated strategies stop working (regime change, explained)Markets shift and edges decay. Why automated trading strategies stop working, what regime change is, and how to tell a dead strategy from a normal drawdown.Testing & evidenceIn-Sample vs Out-of-Sample: The Split That Saves YouIn-sample vs out-of-sample testing explained: why you hold data back, how testing on everything curve-fits a backtest, and how a split builds real trust.Testing & evidenceSlippage: The Hidden Cost That Kills Backtested EdgesSlippage is the gap between the price you expect and the price you get, and it quietly erodes a backtested trading edge. Here is how to account for it.Testing & evidenceBacktest Sample Size: How Many Trades Before It Means AnythingBacktest sample size decides whether a result is real or luck: why 30 trades prove nothing, what a meaningful sample looks like, and how a small one fools you.Testing & evidenceSharpe ratio vs profit factor: how to judge a trading systemProfit factor measures gross wins over losses; the Sharpe ratio measures return per unit of volatility. Where each misleads for a once-a-day futures system.Testing & evidenceProfit Factor Explained (And Where It Misleads You)Profit factor is total money won divided by total money lost. What it tells you, and why a very high number is often a warning, not a better system.Testing & evidenceOverfitting and curve fitting: why beautiful backtests die in live tradingWhy beautiful backtests die in live trading: what curve fitting is, how optimization creates it, in-sample vs out-of-sample, and the tells you can check.Testing & evidenceWhat a backtest is, and when you can actually trust oneA backtest is a simulation, not a track record. Look-ahead bias, tick data, zero commissions and sample size, plus how to reproduce ours in NinjaTrader 8.