Risk & sizingRecovering from a drawdown: the math you should know firstLose 20% and you need 25% to get even. Lose 50% and you need 100%. The math of drawdown recovery, why depth compounds against you, and what to control.
Risk & sizingSurvivorship bias in trading: why you only ever see the winnersSurvivorship bias in trading means you only see what survived: the funds, traders and strategies that lived. How it inflates expectations, and how to check.
Risk & sizingHow much to risk per trade (and how futures change the 1% rule)How much to risk per trade? One percent of the account is the usual answer, but a fixed futures stop in dollars changes the math. Here is how.Risk & sizingThe psychology of watching a bot loseThe hardest part of automated trading is not the code, it is sitting through a normal drawdown without switching the bot off. Here is why, and how to do it.Risk & sizingWhy a 3:1 reward-to-risk changes everythingA 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio lets you lose three trades in four and still break even. The arithmetic, worked through, and what the lower bar changes.Risk & sizingRisk of Ruin in Trading, Explained With a Coin FlipRisk of ruin in trading, explained with a coin flip: how win rate, payoff and bet size decide whether you go broke, and why tested sizing keeps it low.Risk & sizingMax drawdown vs average drawdown, and why you plan around the maxMax drawdown is the deepest peak-to-trough fall; average drawdown is the typical dip. Read both: you plan around the max and set expectations by the average.Risk & sizingDaily loss limits: why every serious system has oneA daily loss limit is a hard cap that stops trading once losses reach a set amount. Why every serious system enforces one, with an example.Risk & sizingPosition Sizing for Automated Futures, Done RightPosition sizing for automated futures is set by your account size and drawdown, not confidence: 50k runs one micro, and doubling it doubles the drawdown.Risk & sizingSlippage and commissions: why your real result is never the backtest resultYour real result is never the backtest result. What a round turn costs, what slippage is, and why a 3-to-1 system barely notices what kills a scalper.Risk & sizingRisk-reward and win rate: why being right a lot is not the same as making moneyBeing right a lot is not the same as making money. The breakeven formula, worked examples at 1:1, 2:1 and 3:1, expectancy, and the 90% win rate trap explained.Risk & sizingDrawdown: the number that decides whether you are still there in a yearDrawdown is the peak-to-trough loss that decides whether you stay in the game. Absolute vs percent, time underwater, and how to plan around it.Risk & sizingHow much money do you actually need to startHow much money you need to start trading futures depends on the drawdown you must survive, not on the margin. The arithmetic, done in front of you.